Field Report
by kwhite
Today John Mueller spoke on America’s distorted view on the threat posed by terrorism, and how continuing irrationality on homeland security imperils American security.
The talk, sponsored by the Cato Institute and taped on C-Span, offered Mueller an opportunity to discuss his new book, Overblown: How Politicians and the Terrorism Industry Inflate National Security Threats and Why We Believe Them.
“The scope of the [terrorism] threat is substantially exaggerated,” Mueller told the crowded hall, adding that terrorism, “is not an existential threat.”
Unfortunately for Mueller, the only one agreeing with him so far is Michael Moore. The concession drew laughs from the crowd at Cato, a conservative/libertarian think tank in Washington, D.C.
Mueller’s presentation made three basic points: 1) the threat of dying from terrorism is small, 2) that playing on this fear has led to foolish policies, and 3) there is a reasonable alternative counter-terrorism strategy.
Mueller compared statistics about terrorism with seemingly more benign matters. The results, however, put things into perspective. For instance, a person has an equal chance of being killing by a comet or asteroid as from a terrorist attack. Throwing in yet another statistic, he told the crowd the number of people that have died from terrorist acts is on par with fatalities from bathtub tub drownings. He also harped on an important fact: not one serious terrorist cell has been found in the United States since 9/11.
Unfortunately the fear and speculation about another terrorist attack has brought significant consequences—large government spending, two wars, and an erosion of our individual liberties.
Spending has been wasted. Mueller points out the resort Weeki Wachee Springs, showcasing a Mermaid show, that has been designated a terrorist target, thus making it eligible for homeland security funds. The two wars are not going exceedingly well, as seen by eroding support for President George W. Bush. And recent controversies over data-mining and wire-tapping have led many to complain about America’s diminishing civil liberties.
And all the effectiveness of these controversial policies has been increasingly scrutinized by members of both political parties.
Cato’s Jim Harper, moderating the event, brought focus to his recent study exploring the profound limitations—and considerable cost—of data mining.
Former Governor James Gilmore (R-VA), the sole commenter at the event, spoke highly of the book hailing its “counter-cultural approach” as “encourage[ing] people to think.”
But Gilmore did shift the focus back to the reality of the threat by issuing the caution, “Don’t kid yourself, we’re in a war if not against terrorism against terrorists.” But he urged that our country to “have some sense of proportion.”
Gilmore was skeptical of complete success on this front, lamenting America’s “entertainment society” that rewards sensational news coverage on all topics–including homeland security.
Gilmore is a respected voice on security matters. Before going into politics, Gilmore served as a counter-terrorism agent and recently headed up the Congressional Advisory Panel to Assess Domestic Capabilities for Terrorism Involving Weapons of Mass Destruction. Today he is Chairman of the National Council on Readiness and Preparedness.
Though Gilmore does envision greater transparency on matters of national security and increased engagement by ordinary citizens as constructive steps towards a “secure and free” America.
Mueller was pessimistic on the chances of sweeping change, seemingly pushing for improvement on the margins, i.e. limiting the damage of strategic missteps. But he did think the recent Democratic victory in Congress offered a chance for greater accountability on both the expenditures and policies of the up-to-now unchallenged Bush White House. He also pushed for publicizing the number of false alarms, reassessing some safety standards, following past examples of restraint (the 1983 Beirut bombing on U.S. forces and the destruction of Pam Am Flight 103), and simple common sense as ways to properly recalibrate our homeland security policies.
But even with his criticisms, Mueller considered our current war on terror “generally going rather well.” Yet he urged the audience to show more skepticism about the waste and harms of the counter-terrorism industry. Left unchecked these policies will, according to Mueller, “do the terrorists’ dirty work for them.”
